4H Chart
4H swing is bullish. Internal is bullish.
Price has reached a supply area and it is pulling back. The current internal trend is bullish so unmitigated areas to the left are just reaction points. The expectation is for the internal bullish trend to continue in line with the bullish 4H swing.
I draw a PoI, the one directly causing a break of structure as possible point where the internal pullback may finish though we are starting to see some wicks indicating bullish pressure.
15m Chart
15min swing is bullish. Internal is bullish (at the beginning of the session). It will change to bearish during the session.
Today I tighten up the 15min swing structure as it was getting too loose. Structure was starting to form within the internal structure indicating that the swing range was too large.
Price has reached a 15m supply area within a larger 4H supply area so a pullback was expected.
Session Outlook and Entries
Bias for the session is neutral. Longs are risky after 4H supply area mitigation, shorts too as both swing and internal structure are bullish.
The only entry would have been during Asia session, sell limit order at the edge of the 15min supply area. Even if inside the 4H supply area, this is still a risky entry as it is counter 15m swing and counter 15min internal. The bullish candle highlighted would have filled you in. SL covering the range (it could be sensible to cover the round number 3,350). The nearest low (expected to fail for the 15min swing pullback to continue) was too close so the TP would have been near the 15min strong low for a 2.5 R:R.
During the session, only a PoI formed around 9am from where price breaks the internal structure and also takes the Asia low gave a possible area to trade from. This area was not revisited even though that M-shape pattern gets close. No entry for me.
Now let’s talk about why not to go long from the indicated PoI formed during Asia and, if you are wondering, did I take it? Unfortunately yes. Learning in the hard way.
- Price just mitigated a 15min supply area within a 4H supply area.
- The PoI is in the premium of the leg.
- Even with both swing and internal bullish the chances of a pullback beyond that PoI are high.
Price hesitated for a moment and continue down with strength.
Final Thoughts
- Learn from every losing trade.
- Hold the trigger! Look at other instruments for better setups. I am currently looking also at EURUSD, DE30EUR (DAX), USDJPY and GBPJPY (this last one on a higher timeframe).
