4H Chart
4H swing is bullish. Internal is bearish (at the beginning of the session). It will turn bullish after the break around 3,265 towards the end of the session.
Price has already mitigated a 4H demand area in the discount of the leg so 4H swing trend may resume. Looking at the latest internal swing, a small double top before the session shows some difficulty on breaking high. At the same time, liquidity is building up over those tops and price tends to go and take that liquidity.
15m Chart
15m swing is bearish. 15m swing will change to bullish by the end of the session. Internal is bullish.
Price has mitigated a 4H demand area and the expectation is that the 4H bullish trend will resume. This means that the strong 15m high is expected to fail (and it will by the end of the session).
Session Outlook and Entries
Bias for the session is bullish, aiming for the liquidity pool above.
Even with all the liquidity that I mentioned and this bias, somehow I decided to short from that low probability PoI shown in the chart and I was rightfully taken out.
Depending how structure is mapped, for me, there were no valid entries for today as there were no strong PoIs to trade from. If structure was mapped more tightly, there was a bullish trend forming from the low of the Asia session. The only option would have been to enter in the mitigation of the range for 2.2 R:R to the weak internal high or even 3.5 R:R to the strong 15m high expected to fail. Other PoIs formed during that up leg were not revisited so there was no option to enter from them.
Final Thoughts
- Don’t trade against your own analysis!
- A missed trade is better than a losing one.
- Would it have made sense to take the trade from the range? Definitely yes. Even a wider stop loss covering the strong internal low would have given enough R:R to the strong 15m high expected to fail. Happy to take a loss there than shorting as I did.
