4H Chart
4H swing is bearish. Internal structure is also bearish.
Price is moving towards the beginning of a big impulse just below 1.1000. Checking the most recent price action, after printing a new low, price pulled back to a 4H supply area and heading towards current weak swing at 1.1065 so the expectation is for that low to be taken.
15m Chart
Swing is bearish. By Frankfurt open, price is moving up with some bearish order flow. Looking at the overall price structure from the previous session, price is moving sideways. An impulse in the previous session left a POI that was respected with a strong bearish candle.
Session Outlook and Entries
In this session I was looking at the POI just above the Asia session highs. Considering that the area was very well defended by the bears with a very strong candle respecting another supply area before and the liquidity that is left over the Asia highs, this was a high probability area to go short.
The only concern I had was that the POI had a wick touch just after it was formed, around 15:00 on the previous day. I tried to enter when the price was starting to move down with a very tight SL. I was stopped out. As the order flow was still bullish, I decided to wait until a low formed during the Asia session was taken. This happened at 10:45, confirming a bearish break of structure and therefore a bearish order flow. This time I just set my entry at the edge of the newly created POI and gave some room setting my SL at the top of the previous POI. TP was on the weak swing low that was expected to be taken if bearish OF was to continue. This was only 1.5 R:R.
Final Thoughts
- Tight stops are not a good idea. Always cover the POI or a strong swing if nearby.
- If a hadn’t taken a loss just before, I would have probably set the SL of my new entry just above the POI where I entered. This would have given a much better R:R. Of course the result of each individual trade is random and anything could have happened.
